About the NELF Scenarios

The New England Landscape Futures scenarios were developed through scenario building workshops with 120 stakeholders from the six states. Details about the scenario co-design process can be found in McBride et al. 2017. The report Voices from the Land summarizes the process and outcomes of scenario creation for the NELF project.

This web page contains some of the same information that can be found in these two sources for convenience, and also contains framing suggestions for the scenarios if you are interested in using them for your work but are not sure how to do so.

Scenario Summaries

The scenario matrix below contains bullet point summaries of each of the scenarios. The scenarios are structured around the axes of natural resource planning and innovation and socio-economic connectedness (definitions from McBride et al. 2017).

Driver Definitions

Socio-economic connectedness refers to the extent to which population migration, culture, economic markets, goods and services, and trade and climate policy are globally oriented or locally oriented.

Natural resource planning & innovation refers to the extent to which governments engage in proactive land-use planning and invest in technological advances for land, energy, and water use. It also reflects the degree of private sector innovation in resource use and investment in ecosystem services. This driver also incorporates social attitudes toward land stewardship and sustainability.

Scenario Matrix

A two-by-two matrix with bullet point summaries of the scenarios.

Full Length Narratives

View or download the full length scenario narratives, with footnotes indicating how qualitative characteristics were modeled quantitatively as land use.

Framing Suggestions

We recognize that the NELF scenarios can be challenging to incorporate into your work, especially depending on the audience you are trying to reach. There are story lines, maps, and a whole stakeholder engagement process that went into them which can make it difficult to feel comfortable using the scenarios as your own.

View or download framing suggestions we recommend for Recent Trends and the alternatives. We hope these suggestions help you use the NELF scenarios to support your work!

Tracking Scenario Signals

We invite you to view or contribute to our tracking of NELF scenario signals. The scenario signals can be things you see in news headlines or things you are witnessing in your own community.